What Makes a Mineral 'Critical'?
Critical minerals are non-fuel resources considered essential for economic and national security due to their role in modern technologies, clean energy systems, and defence infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) defines critical minerals based on two criteria:
For example, rare earth elements (REEs) like neodymium and dysprosium are vital for wind turbines and electric vehicle (EV) motors. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency 2022 Report:
Neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium are key to the production of the permanent magnets used in electric vehicles (EVs) and wind turbines. Neodymium is the most important in volume terms.
Gallium Nitride and germanium are important for semiconductors and 5G networks. The U.S. relies entirely on imports for 12 critical minerals, including arsenic (used in semiconductors), fluorspar (essential for aluminium refining), and tantalum (critical for electronics). This dependency leaves supply chains vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions, as seen in recent U.S.-China trade tensions.
The Trump-China Trade War: A Supply Chain Time Bomb
During Trump's first administration from 2017 to 2021, efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese imports through tariffs and trade barriers unconsciously intensified vulnerabilities for the US. While the 2020 Executive Order aimed to revive domestic mining and processing, progress lagged due to regulatory hurdles and underinvestment. China, which controls 70% of global rare earth mining and 90% of processing, retaliated by restricting exports of gallium and germanium in 2023. Gallium and germanium are key minerals for semiconductors and solar panels.
The Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) sought to boost domestic clean energy manufacturing, but Trump’s 'proposed' 2025 tariffs (including a 60% levy on Chinese goods) threaten to reignite tensions. Such measures risk triggering further Chinese export controls, destabilising supply chains for EVs, renewables, and defence systems. These proposed tariffs could potentially cost US consumers more than $2,600 per year (equivalent to £1807.05 as of February 5, 2025).
Why Critical Minerals Matter for the Green Transition
The shift to renewable energy sources heavily depends on critical minerals. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), an offshore wind plant requires approximately thirteen times more mineral resources than a gas-fired plant to generate power. An electric vehicle (EV) needs six times more minerals than a conventional car. Lithium demand is projected to grow by 42 times (or 4200%) by 2040 compared to 2020 levels, if the Paris Agreement to limit the global temperature increase to less than 2°C is to be met.
China’s dominance in refining and processing over 40% of global capacity for lithium, copper, cobalt, and rare earths means U.S. tariffs or export bans could disrupt decarbonisation timelines. China considers gallium and germanium supplies as resources of national security interest.
The High Cost of Import Reliance
The USGS reports that the U.S. imports over 50% of its consumption for 43 of 50 critical minerals. Let's break down the risks:
| Mineral | Use Cases | U.S. Import Reliance | Primary Supplier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenic | Semiconductors, pesticides | 100% | China |
| Fluorspar | Aluminium, refrigerants | 100% | Mexico |
| Rare Earths | EVs, wind turbines, defence | 95%+ | China |
| Graphite | EV batteries | 100% | China |
Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2024
China’s strategic use of mineral exports as geopolitical leverage mirrors its 2010 rare earth embargo against Japan. Today its control over gallium and germanium gives it influence over tech sectors. Kevin Klyman, a technology researcher at The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, was quoted in the MIT Technology Review to have said following the decision of the Chinese restriction of gallium and germanium in 2023:
Every day the technology war is getting worse. This is a notable day that accelerated things further.
A Sustainable Future Requires Mineral Diplomacy
The green economy cannot succeed without stable critical mineral supplies. Yet, as Trump’s tariff proposals and China’s export restrictions reveal, weaponising trade risks stalling the energy transition. The U.S. must prioritise cooperation over confrontation, investing in domestic capabilities while strengthening alliances to build resilient, ethical supply chains.
